Solana: Will the New ETF Spark Price Growth? Analysis for July 1, 2025

Solana trades at $158 on July 1, 2025, with a new ETF potentially boosting bullish momentum.

Solana (SOL), a leading layer-1 blockchain, is trading at approximately $158 on July 1, 2025, reflecting a 6% increase over the past 24 hours. Recent news about the launch of the first U.S. Solana staking ETF, set to debut on July 2, 2025, has captured investor attention. Technical and fundamental analysis suggests strong bullish potential, though challenges may hinder sustained growth. From a technical perspective, Solana is approaching key resistance between $160 and $175. Breaking this level could drive the price toward a $200 target, as forecasted by analysts for July 2025. Key support lies at $130 to $135, and a breach could see prices drop to $118. Chart patterns like the cup and handle and a 133% surge in trading volume over the past 24 hours indicate bullish momentum. However, the ADX indicator at 13 suggests a weak trend, implying this move may be a short-term bounce rather than a sustained uptrend. Fundamental factors are also significant. The Solana staking ETF by REX Shares and Osprey Funds, regulated under the 1940 Act, offers passive income through staking, a first for U.S. crypto ETFs. This could boost Solana’s appeal to institutional investors. However, the Grayscale Solana Trust manages only $75 million in assets, compared to $10 billion for Ethereum’s trust, signaling some investor skepticism. Additionally, the market cap of stablecoins on Solana’s network has dropped from $13 billion in April to $10.5 billion, indicating reduced on-chain liquidity. Institutional adoption of Solana is growing. A memorandum of understanding with Kazakhstan to establish Central Asia’s first Solana Economic Zone and Circle’s minting of $250 million in USDC with a $4.36 fee highlight the network’s efficiency. Solana’s derivatives trading volume on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange has also hit a record high. However, competition from newer blockchains and macroeconomic factors like Federal Reserve policies could impact the market. Solana’s correlation with Bitcoin is noteworthy. A breakout above the SOL/BTC ratio of 0.0015 could drive increased demand. With an anticipated altcoin season in late 2025, Solana could benefit significantly. Investors should monitor key levels and use reputable exchanges like Binance and Coinbase for trading. Thorough analysis and risk management are critical in this volatile market.