Sui: Will the New ETF Trigger a Breakout? Analysis for July 1, 2025

Sui trades at $2.48 on July 1, 2025, with a potential ETF boosting bullish momentum.

Sui (SUI), the native token of the Sui layer-1 blockchain, is trading at approximately $2.48 on July 1, 2025, reflecting a 1.5% decrease over the past 24 hours. Recent news about a Sui ETF application from a NASDAQ-listed entity and increased stablecoin activity on the network has drawn investor attention. Technical and fundamental analysis suggests bullish potential, but key resistance levels and token unlock risks may hinder sustained growth. From a technical perspective, SUI is consolidating between $2.3 and $2.8. Key resistance lies at $2.8 to $3.1, and breaking this could drive the price toward $5.3, as some analysts predict for 2025. Critical support is at $2.3 to $2.4, which has held firm multiple times in June 2025. An Elliott Wave pattern and rising trading volume (up to $1 billion in 24 hours) indicate bullish momentum. However, the RSI at around 42 suggests the market is in neutral territory, with a potential short-term correction to $2.3. Fundamental factors are also significant. Sui’s total value locked (TVL) has reached $2.1 billion, up from $1.7 billion in May, reflecting significant growth. A strategic partnership with Microsoft and stablecoin volume rising to $1.2 billion by May 2025 demonstrate confidence in Sui’s infrastructure. The Sui ETF application, with a 65% chance of approval in 2025, could boost institutional capital inflow. However, a $164 million token unlock on July 1 may create selling pressure, especially with a 36.8% drop in daily trading volume. Institutional adoption of Sui is expanding. The launch of Peg-BTC by Bitlayer, adding 587 BTC to Sui’s ecosystem, has enhanced its DeFi utility. However, competition from blockchains like Ethereum and Solana, along with macroeconomic factors like Federal Reserve policies, could impact the market. SUI’s correlation with Bitcoin is noteworthy; a breakout above the SUI/BTC ratio of 0.00002 could drive demand. With an anticipated altcoin season in late 2025, Sui could benefit significantly. Investors should monitor key levels and use reputable exchanges like Binance and Coinbase for trading. Thorough analysis and risk management are critical in this volatile market.